The Enrollment Cliff Is Here

The Enrollment Cliff Is Here — What It Means for Higher Education and How to Respond

Colleges and universities across the country are bracing for a dramatic shift. It’s not a budget cut, a tech disruption, or a change in regulation—though all of those are real. This one is demographic. It’s been quietly building for over a decade, and now it's here: the enrollment cliff.

What Is the Enrollment Cliff?

The term “enrollment cliff” refers to the projected—and now materializing—sharp drop in college enrollments starting around 2025–2026. The primary cause? A steep decline in birth rates following the Great Recession of 2008. Fewer babies then means fewer high school graduates now.

The problem: the pipeline of traditional college-bound students is drying up. And, according to research, it's not coming back anytime soon. The solution: skate to where the puck is going to be.

Why It Matters

The impact of this demographic downturn is already being felt. Institutions are seeing smaller freshman classes, increased competition for students, and greater pressure on tuition-driven revenue models. Some of the most affected will be:

·         Community colleges and regional public institutions

·         Small private colleges outside major metro areas

·         Institutions heavily reliant on traditional-age, full-time students

It’s Not Just About Fewer Students

While the population decline is the root, other factors are compounding the problem, many of which I discuss in my new ebook, Continuing Education and Workforce Development Marketing Strategies:

·         Skepticism about higher ed’s ROI

·         Growth of alternative credentials from companies like Google and Coursera

·         Rising cost of attendance deterring students and families

·         Shifts toward lifelong learning, career pivots, and upskilling

Deer In the Headlights?

One of my clients at a large state university says: “Yes, we are entering it now and for the next few years. Schools have seen it coming for years but stayed on the same path, targeting a shrinking, high-school pool to get enrollments. We all talk about it but few schools have pivoted. Couple that with segments of the population that look askance at higher education and it presents a very real dilemma. Higher education needs a change in mindset.”

Another client says: “The cliff is real. Less revenue and we’re all fighting harder for the same number of students. It’s really supply and demand.”

What Can Higher Ed Leaders Do?

While this may be a challenge—it also represents a tremendous strategic opportunity. Institutions that reimagine their role in the lives of adult learners, career changers, and local employers, and get out ahead of the problem, can thrive in this new era.

The flip side of the shrinking student pool is an expanding Boomer pool. Older people will likely need to work longer in order to retire and, as such, will need to learn cross-generational skills to cope, adjust, and coexist in a workplace with Millennials, Gen Z’s, etc. They’ll also need to become adept at using new technologies such as AI. So, schools should be pivoting and focusing more on adult education.

That’s where Continuing Education and Workforce Development (CEWD) programs come in. CEWD programs are uniquely positioned to:

·         Serve older and nontraditional students

·         Offer short-term credentials and job-ready training

·         Strengthen ties with local industries

·         Generate new, much-needed revenue streams outside the traditional degree model

But only if they’re marketed strategically, properly, and effectively!

A Strategic Guide to Marketing CEWD Programs

To help higher education leaders navigate these changes, I’ve written my aforementioned, new 56-page eBook: Continuing Education and Workforce Development Marketing Strategies: Unleashing the Power of Higher Education’s Most Undervalues Asset Through Smart, Strategic Marketing.

It’s designed for presidents, chancellors, and CEWD directors who want to:

·         Increase adult learner enrollment

·         Improve community outreach

·         Attract local employers to workforce training programs

·         Boost revenue and visibility in a post-enrollment cliff world

Get the full eBook for $19.99 (on sale from $39.99)!

Need Strategic Help? Consider a Fractional CMO

Many institutions don’t have the internal marketing bandwidth or leadership to adapt to this new reality. As a Fractional CMO specializing in CEWD and Higher Education, I partner with colleges and universities, such as Penn State, to:

·         Create and execute marketing strategies tailored to CEWD

·         Develop campaigns that speak to adult learners and business partners

·         Align enrollment goals with community and economic development priorities

Whether you're short on time, staff, or strategy, I can provide you with the marketing expertise you need, fast, without the cost and overhead of a full-time CMO hire.

Book a free 30-minute strategy call at www.rfoneyfcmo.com.

Final Thought

In hockey, they always tell you: don’t skate to where the puck is; skate to where it’s going to be. And that’s exactly what higher education needs to do. The enrollment cliff isn’t just a challenge—it’s a wake-up call and an opportunity. Institutions that take bold, strategic action now will not only survive, but thrive, and lead the way into a new era of higher education.

Let’s make sure your college is one of them.